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Currency market

Day key for the Brexit.

On the day of yesterday was characterised for being an untroubled meeting after the strong assessment of yesterday of the dollar after knowing the decision of Federal Reserve and more specifically after knowing new reach of the members of the FED, who talked of a rise more for this year 2017 and three possible rises in 2018. The strong assessment of the dollar when dealing with the euro registered in the Wednesday's afternoon (1.2032 EURUSD to 1.1861 EURUSD) was mitigated during on the day of yesterday, where saw at least to little the euro returned to recover field until current levels of 1.1970 EURUSD.

However, the strength of the dollar remained and was even strengthened against the currencies linked to commodities. Within these the most notable thing went the depreciation of the australian dollar that se depreció when dealing with the dollar falling until 0.7915 AUDUSD, lowest level from month's beginning. Right now pays contributions in 0.7954 AUDUSD.

Interesting went also the behaviour of the pound that it seems that it maintains its strength both against the euro and against the dollar, remember that after the publication of the inflation, higher of the expected thing, possibilities of interest rate increases in The United Kingdom were shot doing that the pound was appreciated from levels of 0.9120 EURGBP to 0.8870 ERUGBP, currently still gets around in these levels. We have opened today in 0.8790 EURGBP.

The market discounts already with about 67.6% of probability a rate increase of interest in The United Kingdom for its meeting of November, going up this to about 75.7% for December. In any case the attention of the market will be centred today in Florence, where the Prime Minister Theresa May will give a discourse on the Brexit in an attempt of unblocking conversations with Brussels. Remember that the European Union demanded a payment of 100,000 million euros that should pay The United Kingdom for its exit of the European Union, despite the fact that initially Britons were denied to carry out no payment seems that May today will present about first fee-paying offer of 20,000 millions. Will see as it takes place the discourse and as affects this in the evolution of the pound.

This Sunday the General Elections will be celebrated in Germany, which not no surprise is expected. The preliminary surveys give a victory comfortable to the started from the chancellor Angela Merkel, in which it would be its fourth mandate.

The yen was appreciated during on the day of yesterday. The new tensions increase between the United States and North Korea before the development armamentístico and ballistic of this latest had as a result a recovery in the aversion to the risk that was translated in which the Nipponese currency, in its shelter currency role, was appreciated from 111.60 USDJPY to 111.40 USDJPY.

Today will know the publication of the PMI Manufacturer and the PMI of Services of the Eurozone and the PMI manufacturer in the United States. It will talk also Mario Draghi in Dublin, and Constancio in Frankfurt, both members of the ECB. Williams and George members of the FED, both without vote being the first neutral and the second one more pro-rise of types and lastly Kaplan, member of the FED with vote and less pro-rise, that it will talk at 7.30pm.

Ranges estimated of the principals currencies for today:

EURUSD
1,1950 - 1,2025

EURGBP
0,8800-0,8850

EURJPY
133.90-134.75

 
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ECB Monitor
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