Government bonds

The tir 2 years from the USA is in maximum of 2008

The fall of the assets of risk and the “traffic jam” of the tax reform in the USA maintain to the debt without defining trend. The exception to this situation have it in the short terms of the U.S.curve, whose tir of the bond to 2 years accumulates a rise of 45 rp from September and is situated above 1.70 %. The solids details published in last few days have intensified this upward movement.

In this context, seems interesting to check which would be its fair value and, according to our estimates, lathe would be placed at at 2 %, under the hypothesis of that the premium for liquidity remains stable in the current levels. The problem is that, just as it happens in the term to 10 years, levels lower than is placed at its historic average, which is why any negative surprise, in a context of dropped out of monetary incentives, will cause its extension, pushing more with an upward trend throw away them.

Source: Bankia Studies