Risks with an upward trend on the anticipated growths

The publication of the two principal indicators of activity of May (employment and surveys ISM business studies) clear definitively the doubts and they are consistent with rates of growth of the GDP higher than the annualised 3.0%. The economy created more work positions of the expected thing (223,000 when dealing with 159,000 in April, revised with an upward trend), the unemployment rate fell from 3.9% until 3.8% (minimum from April 2000) and vacancies of employment are placed at all-time highs and they already exceed to the number of applicants. Additionally the ISM surveys exceeded the expectations, so much in the manufacturing sectors (58.7 from 57.3) as in the rest of sectors (58.6 from 57.7), and the reading for components is consistent with great pressures on the costs and with difficulties of the offer to align with the demand. In addition, the effect richness will go on driving to the consumer spending. The net richness of the families increased 1.0% in the 1T18, until exceeding the 100 trillion dollars, all-time high and almost seven times the disposable income (6.5 times in 2006, maximum of the previous cycle).

Furthermore, the commercial deficit went back in April 2.1%, until 46,200 million dollars from 47,200 millions, thanks to an increase of 0.3% of the exports (including a record figure of oil) and a decrease from 0.2% of imports.

Source: Bankia Studies