The inflation starts to worry
The annual inflation remained stable in January, so much the general (2.1%) as the underlying one (1.8%), disappointing expectations of consensus, that they discounted a fall in both cases. In addition, the strong monthly growth that they have accumulated the prices in the last three months (next at 4.0% annualised, in adjusted terms of estacionalidad) strengthens expectations of the financial markets of that the tensions inflationists go in rise. In any case, the record of January barely modifies the previous stage: the inflation in the next few months will increase, although it will do in a gradual and restrained way (2.4%-2.6% estimated in mid year) and he should not alter the Fed's current plans: for now, do not see a notable risk of that it goes up the types nor more nor faster of the expected thing, considering that the measures tendenciales will follow below or in line with its objective.
Coinciding for this great worry for the inflation, latest data of activity of January have disappointed: they fell so much the retail sales (-0.3% vs 0.0%) as the industrial production (-0.1% vs 0.4%). In any case, the perspectives for the economy throughout this year are very favourable. In fact, the increase of the budgetary outlay, collected in the budgets for the fiscal years 2018-19 has obliged to revise with an upward trend predictions of growth of the GDP: expect that the economy grows to quarterly rhythms in the range 2.4%-2.8% annualised in 2018, 0.3 p.p. above the previous predictions, in average.
Source: Bankia Studies