Interbank

They increase predictions of types for 2019 in the USA

The good financial details published in the USA and the rise of the oil price have caused a new reduction with an upward trend in the predictions of the market on the type of one the Fed, narrowing the differences with the perspectives of the Board. Once the stage for 2018 offers few doubts, the changes concentrating on the expected type are had for 2019 (+10 rp), which consequently the market discounts for that year, at least, two rises more than 25 rp, situating the range of interest rates between 2.50% and 2.75%. Is interesting to emphasise that these levels would suppose already the step to a restrictive monetary policy then, according to the recent estimate of the Fed of San Francisco, the neutral type would be situated, in nominal terms, in 2.50%.

Source: Bankia Studies