LATEST OUTSTANDING RECOMMENDATIONS
Information prepared by GVC Gaesco BEKA
Prices of close from 01/12/2018
REPSOL. The Spanish oil company published the result of the scrip dividend of January 2018. The 74.2 % of the shareholders chose to receive new stock which is why titles equivalent to will be issued about 1.9 % of the current share capital, being this acceptance higher than the average of latest years. However, holders of the 20.25 % of rights of free allocation sold them to Repsol that him will correspond to pay 152.8mEUR. This amount is enough feasible because of the company (vs. if it will accept the 100 %) given that an is situated-22 % of the average of the latest ones 6 years. At the same time, according to press, Repsol would be studying the possibility of sale of the 20 % that it has in Gas Natural, although the company has just permitted it as a possibility within several alternatives. Following on from this, we think that Repsol has already practically fulfilled its disinvestment objective of 6.2bnEUR for 2020 which is why it would not be necessary the total sales of the package that it possesses.
Remember that the contribution of Gas Natural to the profit is of the 10 % contributing stability to the income statement of the company and a tall return for dividend, although part of these income would would be substituted by smaller expenses financial. To prevailing prices of contribution, the value presents a potential of revaluation of +9.6 %, with respect to our standard price of 17.45 %. We reiterate our positive recommendation of Buying.
CELLNEX TELECOM.The company is preparing the field for new operations corporate with the senior bond issue, not guaranteed and convertible excluding preferred subscription rights for current shareholders. The amount of the issuance was 600mEUR with maturity in January 2026. Finally, the coupon was established in the 1.5 % (vs. 1.25-2 % estimated by CLNX). They will be convertible to option of the holder in stock of new issue or exchangeable because of stock already existing a price from conversion with a premium of the 70 % on the considered average price of the stock of the company. In addition, Cellnex reserves the right to amortise in an early way for the nominal amount more the earned interest to date as long as following requirements are fulfilled:
1) the market value of the underlying stock to 18/07/2022 for every 100k nominal amount, exceeds the 130k during a certain period of time; and
2) more than the 85 % of the nominal amount has been turned and/or exchanged.
Lastly, a change of control was existed in the society (TAKEOVER BID on Abertis), bondholders will have right to that the company recompre bonds.Broadly speaking, is a positive issuance for its possible destination in addition to the low paid coupon. Similarly, drag on maturities and the weight of the debt is increased to fixed rate. With a theoretical assessment of EUR 23.8/acc, to prevailing prices of contribution, offers a potential of the +10.7 % and we reiterate our recommendation of Accumulating.
NH HOTEL GROUP.Finally the CdA of the company hotelier declined the proposal of fusion made by Group Barceló. Between minus sides outstanding by the company for this declension are:
1) The equation of exchange does not reflect both companies' relative assessment;
2) does not offer actual control premium on the assessment of market of NH;
3) it does not reflect the potential results growth nor its assets' value as owner; or
4) that the offer lacks liquidity for the shareholder.
Us saw positive both companies' fusion for its complementarity:
1) expertise of the Group Barceló in Latin America, Caribbean and EE.UU. in the holiday sector;
2) with the relevant presence of NH in Europe in the urban part. In addition, the overlap of the business in Spain would be able to originate potential synergistic gains.
However, after the not to the fusion, does not have why be negative given that NH will continue with its project in recluse, presented in the day of the investor September, that it includes an attractive EBITDA growth being feasible if there is continuity of the cycle in Europe.
Despite which it succeeds corporate level, reiterate our recommendation of Buying, leaned on that NH is still an interesting option because of growth and assessment in the sector hotelier national. In addition, NH, in the statement emphasises that the refusal to this operation does not impede the analysis of other, which is why it does not close the door on to fuse as long as conditions are improved.With a theoretical assessment of EUR 7/acc, to prevailing prices of contribution, offers a potential of the +14.2 %.