LATEST OUTSTANDING RECOMMENDATIONS
Information prepared by GVC Gaesco BEKA
Closing price from 07/27/2018
ACCIONA. The Spanish utility published good set of assisted results for great energy bodies (+12% production, +10% sales and +7% EBITDA) and better margins under construction (6.9% vs. 5.5%).
For the negative side, the investment in working capital worsens-317mEUR (-291mEUR 1T18 and-360mEUR1S17) although is compensated with the reiteration of the guidance of-200-250mEUR (-291mEUR, estimated).
Other activities as Bestinver present moderate growth (+3% EBITDA) with the managed funds growing a +4% and the property division presents negative return (-4mEUR) while awaiting the new promotions.
The company maintains the rest of objectives:
1) digit EBITDA growth middle vs. +6% estimated;
2) capex 900mEUR vs. 1.1bnEUR, estimated;
3) ratio DN/EBITDFA :4x (vs. 4.2x, estimated).
When it comes to the debt, we must emphasise the decrease of the-11% vs. December 2017 mostly for the sale of assets. Additionally a new syndicated loan valued at was announced 1.3bnEUR to 5 years and fixed cost of 1.56%, soaring until 60% the debt to fixed rate. ATLL is while awaiting that the sentence is executed, maybe in 2019.
With a theoretical assessment of 86.4 EUR/acc., to prevailing prices of contribution, offers a potential of the +18% and we reiterate our recommendation of Buying.
GESTAMP. The company last week presented results of the 1S18, situating above what was estimated by general consent of analyst.
An EBITDA was expected 2T18 of 245mEUR and a margin of 11.4% and, the manufacturer components company for cars, exceeded it in a +4.7%. It is necessary to emphasise also that the results still are affected by the adverse evolution of the currencies.
The sales grew un+3.5% and to consistent exchange rate the growth would have been of the +9.9%.
For divisions, Body stocking in White (84% of the incomes) grew a +7%, Mechanisms (12% of the incomes) +8% and Tooling (4% of the incomes) went down a-44%.
For geographical area, we emphasise strong growth of Eastern Europe and Mercosur.
Accumulated in the year, the results are approximated to our estimates for the group and, also, the company wait a good growth for which takes away of year with a margin in line with the seen one in the first part of the year.
We maintain our estimates and we reiterate our theoretical assessment of 7.8 EUR/acc. that, to prevailing prices of contribution, offers a bullish potential of the +19.7% and, also, reiterate our positive recommendation of Buying. Currently, the focus this position in the tariff conversations between EE.UU. and the EU.
NH HOTEL GROUP. Again, the company publish results of the 1S18.
Generally speaking the results went good and were placed at line with the consensus except for in net profit that was situated over in a +15% and in net debt (229mEUR brought vs. 241mEUR consensus).
The incomes improved in a +4% emphasising Benelux and Italy, whereas Spain and Europe Head office were affected by bank holidays and congresses minors. America had a good former trend forex but that was shocked for the depreciations cambiarias.
The EBITDA, furthermore, grew a +10% with a conversion of 28% and including 1.3mEUR of reversion of onerous. Lastly, before the good operational evolution and good perspectives for the rest of the year, the company confirmed the guidance of EBITDA of 260mEUR and it situated the ratio DN/EBITDA in the range 1-1.2x.
However, the surprise of the results went the announcement of the interest of Hyatt of carrying out an offer for 100% of the capital of the company. Seeing the offer of Minor that, from our point of view, is insufficient, think that the price of Hyatt would owe, at least, exceed our assessment of 7 EUR/acc. so that it resulted interesting. However, see complicated the operation given that the share of Minor International would reach 43.95% of the capital, although it is possible a war of OPA’s. To prevailing prices of contribution, offers a potential of the +3.7%. OP 7 EUR/Acc. and we reiterate our recommendation of Buying.