The confidence suffers for the commercial conflict
The first surveys of July remain in high levels, but the downward trend from the beginning of year confirms that the moment of increased dynamism has been back and that the risks still increase, especially, in those economies with a strong orientation exporter. The composed IDC of the EMU disappointed (54.3 vs 54.9), for the smaller optimism in the service industry (54.4 vs 55.2). The survey remained without changes in the manufacturing sector (54.2), but the employers show a growing concern for the spiral protectionist and its effects on the exports.
In Germany, the survey Ifo reliable business fell slightly (101.7 vs 101.8), again, because of the decrease of the component of expectations (98.2 vs 98.5), that falls for the eighth consecutive month after reaching maximum in 7 years at the end of 2017. Furthermore, in France, the growth of the GDP returned to disappoint in the 2T18 (stable in 0.2% when dealing with 0.7% in quarterly average in 2017), burdened by the weakness of the consumer spending and the strength of the imports (the outside sector took away 0.4 p.p. to the total growth).
Source: Bankia Studies