EMU

 

The EC with an upward trend revises the growth of the EMU until maximum ten-year

The European Commission, in its autumn report, revises with an upward trend its growth predictions for the EMU with respect to May, although it anticipates a mild moderation in the next few years: +0.5 p.p. until 2.2 % 2017; +0.3 p.p. until 2.1 % in 2018; and 1.9 % in 2019. Although it would be the most dynamic period of the last decade, the EC points out that the recovery is still incomplete and it presents several atypical elements: the investment, above all public, is still very low in GDP terms, the potential growth has not been recovered still of the impact of the crisis and expectations of inflation are very restrained because of the weak growth of wages. Following on from this, the EC esteem that the inflation will be of the 1.5 % in 2017, 1.4 % in 2018 and 1.6 % in 2019. In addition, declares that a rise of wages would be significant for the sustainability of the economic expansion.

In Germany, indicators of industrial activity of September confirm about 3T17 very positive for the sector: industrial orders surprised when increasing (1.0 % vs 4.1 % in August, revised with an upward trend) and they situate the growth of the 3T17 between the best six-year; and the industrial production, despite to fall (-1.6 % vs 2.6 % in August), closes the 3T17 with a growth higher than its long term average.

Source: Bankia Studies