Get to know the manager of Loriga SICAV
Francisco Javier Serrano Roldán
Senior SICAV Manager at Bankia Fondos
He has 19 years' experience in Financial Markets, the last ten managing absolute return mandates in Bankia.
Javier started his career path as an auditor at Deloitte.
In 1996 he joined the Analysis Department of Urquijo Bolsa SVB, subsequently becoming its head. In 2005 he began his career at Bankia as the Head of the treasury portfolio invested in equities. Since 2013 he has been the Senior Manager of SICAVs in Bankia Funds, specialising in multi-asset management with goals of absolute return and strict risk control. Evolution of the SICAV
From our latest letter to the shareholders in June, have attended in the markets to the sharp drop that favoured the result of the favourable referendum to the
and to the later recovery during months of July and August, that it has left us in much the same levels to the seen ones fair before the referendum. As a good know, the Brexit
, despite which they forecasted surveys and houses of commitments. BrexitThe result in favour of the it went of the 51.9%, with a share of the 72%. BrexitWe decided to face that day slightly long on risk, trusting in the fact that the probability was more inclined towards permanence. It is a historic event, unprecedented and with unpredictable consequences. This brand decision the beginning of a path very complicated and, above all, very uncertain for The United Kingdom, so much in the political field as in the economic and financial one. The European Union faces these same problems, although probably on a smaller scale. The United Kingdom voted to go out of the European Union
Brexit Nonetheless, had purchased enough coverages via options in case was produced the . We had decided Additionally to cover most of the exhibition to the pound sterling and to maintain open the exhibition to the dollar, that it finished acting of shelter. All of this allowed us to lessen enough the collapse of the markets just as you can appreciate in the graph that we show in the beginning of the article. Brexit, although, seen with perspective, the real problem wine then.How face in the portfolio on the day of the referendum (23 June)?
Once the referendum result was known, we decide to sell companies potentially more exposed to theBrexitand put on slightly short in net terms of equities via the sale of futures in Eurostoxx 50 and S&P 500. Brexit Were convinced the you would add a lot of political and economic uncertainty in a moment already per se complicated. BrexitBasically for the improvement of the macroeconomic perception and because three great uncertainties open of political type ( However, did not go thus. At that point prefer to do a clearly defensive commitment before the risk of a shock potential in the markets, that was not finally produced, knowing that that would impede us conveniently capitalise a reaction a the increase of the market. We still think that our previous position to the referendum was the suitable one
we foresaw that we could have a summer convulso? Brexit Brexit , elections in Spain and elections in EE.UU.) have lost weight.BrexitIndexes ofNamely: Why the market has reacted good during the summer when after the
- positive field have been placed at during the summer, so much in EE.UU. These details, together with some political type statements, have provided that the market starts to quote a as in Europe. In China and in the emerging countries, these indexes follow in negative, although they have also improved. It is of emphasising, in EE.UU., the great strength of the consumer spending, the business job market and confidence. macroeconomic surprises
- , based on fiscal leverages, infrastructure plans and policy neglect of types zero. On the other hand, thestage of growth and stabilisation recovery in the medium term
- have followed intervening, which is why the market has followed operating with a certain “security”network. Brexit After the , the Bank of England surprised with a policy of stimuli a lot more aggressive of the expected thing since, apart from going down types in 25pb as was expected, announced a QE of 60,000 M.GBP for the next 6 months. BrexitWhen it comes to theOn the other hand not it is expected that the Fed goes up types until its meeting of December (quoted probability of the 52%). The assigned probability to September is just of the 24%. Central Banks
- , US companies have surprised favourably in profits (-3% vs-7% estimated) and income (+0.5% vs +0.3% estimated) to a consensus with very conservative estimates. In internal key, thebusiness results
- of the 26-J eliminated a lot of pressure, since, although Government, the market has still not been formed discounts no there will be an executive led by forces populists. Against our idea, the general elections in Spain
- it has yielded enormously in a very brief term. Brexit Brexit The new Prime Minister, Theresa May, is delaying the appeal to the article 50 and in its new government there is a “soft” faction supporter of the model Norwegian. Hammond (Finance Minister) requests measures to absorb the effect of the , a leaf of exit that it allows to The United Kingdom the access to the single market and grantings to protect the City. BrexitThe other great uncertainty factor until end of the year, theworry for the
- , it has also lost focus for the market given that internal problems of the Republican Party and excesses of Trump, seem to distance to this of the White House. A very notable fact of August is that, despite the fact that the great equities indexes (by countries) have barely been moved,Clinton earns for more than six points in the surveys, which involves a probability of victory of the 79%. The democrat candidate does not excite to the electorate, but at first, its victory would have positive consequences for the general market for appearing as a moderate, predecible and not to bet for the protectionism.
presidential elections in EE.UU.
. That has been been able to to see most notably in latest sessions of the month. In Europe, have seen significant advances in banks, chemistries, construction and insurances, whereas falls of similar caliber have been seen in drugstore, basic resources and utilities. utilitiesThatyes that has had very notable movements to sectorial level
(cyclical with an upward trend vs defensive with a downward trend) has come favoured by an expectation of great returns in the interest rates (pushing to banks and insurances) and fiscal stimulus expectations (pushing to construction and industrial). Brexit Given that the market was positioned in a very defensive way after the , that change has forced a close of short in the cyclical sectors that it has exaggerated the movement. BrexitIn the sectors of more cyclical character (banks, basic resources, chemistries, industrial), as well as in the German DAX, that you usually anticipate to the general movements of the market, you can appreciate howclear relay sectorial
bearish service channels are being broken or figures of tendency change are confirmed . Of consolidating this movement, the market would be able to be leaving back the initiated downward trend in April of last year. So far, have positioned us increasing something the risk in equities and, in particular, in the banking sector, where until now barely had exhibition.The banking sector is still that one of worst behaviour in the year (-21% YTD), but they start to change some things, particularly the idea of that the regulator would be able to relieve the pressure on the sector in the future, and of that the volume of credit can grow in virtue of different economic policies, fiscal and rise expansion of the investment in infrastructures. Until the draft of this report (close of 6 September), the performance so far this year in the SICAV is of the-1.7%, when dealing with falls of the-6%/-7% in the European equities and slight gains in fixed-income. The other big change that is received on the market of equities is of technical type.
The daily volatility of the portfolio from its birth follows under 5%, that is, almost five times less than that which you can observe in the market indexes. After recent movements,
(taking into account coverages) it is of the 21% . In the field of the fixed-income, in the latest three months have added to the portfolio two ETFs, one of them of high yieldEuropean, and another of American bonds linked to the inflation. high yieldBranches our net investment in equities