Know to the manager of Loriga sicav
Francisco Javier Serrano Roldán
Manager Sénior of sicavs in Bankia Fondos
He has 19 years' experience in Financial Markets, the last ten managing absolute return mandates in Bankia.
Javier started his career path as an auditor at Deloitte. In 1996 he joined the Analysis Department of Urquijo Bolsa SVB, subsequently becoming its head. In 2005 begins its career at Bankia as a person responsible for the invested own portfolio in equities. From 2013 is Manager Sénior of sicavs in Bankia Fondos, specialised in management multiassets with objectives of return absolute and strict control of the risk.
Evolution of the sicav
You would like me illustrate the management that has been carried out recently in LORIGA 2015 SICAV with regard to the challenge that the Catalan topic has supposed for the markets and try throw something of light on which it can still arrive. At the close of 21 December the return of the portfolio so far this year (YTD) is of the +5.37%, when situating the liquidative one in 0.9596 euros. As a reference, to the same date, the return of indexes principals of equities is close to the +8%/9%, whereas the sovereign debt in Europe has not given no fruit. Our SICAV has achieved this return maintaining one annualised volatility of 3.5%, that is, barely an another quarter of the volatility that presents the IBEX 35.
The philosophy of diversification and active management of coverages that have always guided to this SICAV allowed maintaining the type from May up to the end of August, when assets of risk were seen very pressured by the assessments reached previously and, above all, for factors almost always unaware of the market: instability in the government of Trump, uncertainty on the future movements of the central banks, tension with North Korea, impact of the season of hurricanes, etc.
Nonetheless, the challenge more significant of 2017 has been the risk management secessionist in Catalonia. Up to the end of August this risk went ignored almost completely for the market, but starting from September the IBEX 35 started to have a worse behaviour relative when dealing with the Eurostoxx 50. Specifically, lost 4’3 percentage points in that month in relative terms. However, that did not impede that the SICAV still moved forward. In fact, September went the best month for the SICAV (+2.01%) of everything 2017. There are several reasons that they explain this good behaviour:
- The portfolio is more focused to the European market and to those effects, consider Spain as a country more than the EMU.
- We did not have no company with strong presence on the market Catalan, except for Merlin Properties.
- And the more potent reason: we open, via derivatives, a commitment of relative value in which were long (purchased) of Eurostoxx 50 and short (sold) of IBEX 35. This commitment even more strengthen it opening coverages on the Spanish index instead of use the European index as we usually do usually.
What believe that it can happen from now on? The election result of the 21D returned to give absolute majority to the pro-independence parties, although the training of government is not guaranteed because of the differences between the three parties of the above-mentioned bloique and to the situation judiacial of its leaders. Despite this result, still think that the unilateral statement of independence is of impossible practical application in no region belonging to the EMU. The new independent country would not have no international recognition and it would be unfeasible economically when being out of the euro and not have tax control nor on its financial system. In any case, seems of course the political turbulence in the next few months will continue and it would not be that can be ruled out a new electoral call in Catalonia before summer.
The initial reaction of the market to the election results has not especially been negative, although it could complicate if, as a result of 21D, puts on in question the stability of the central government and its skills to follow implementing refurbishment. Following on from this, it neither be that can be ruled out a motion of no-confidence to the government and, even, a hypothetical election anticipation to state level. It will be necessary to see up to what point the complication of the political outlook stresses on the good cyclical moment through which goes through the Spanish economy, that again will close 2017 with a growth of the GDP above 3%. The reliable indexes, investment, external and creation of employment demand still show, so far, levels of major dynamism.
In the following chart you can appreciate the strong pull that had the relative one Eurostoxx 50 vs. IBEX 35 from the beginning of September and how was stopped in the same levels of July 2012, fairly in the worst moment of the crisis of the euro, when was speculated with a possible intervention of the Spanish economy.
Undoubtedly, the current situation nothing to do does not have with that one of 2012, as a yes seems recognise the fixed income market. In the following chart, see how the Spanish risk premium has barely been expanded in the last few weeks.
In our view, although is difficult that see pessimism extreme situations as that which saw at the beginning of October, is very difficult that the IBEX 35 can trim the lost ground when dealing with the rest of indexes to the quitted credit the election result of the 21D multiple risks open.
Regardless of the Catalan issue, our vision for the beginning of 2018 is reasonably optimistic. We believe that the synchronisation of the good macroeconomic moment to overall level deserves top levels to the current for assets of risk. If have not been achieved has been in recent months for the leading role of exogenous factors (tension in North Korea, hurricanes in the Caribbean, shackles to the tax reform in EE.UU., Catalan question, etc.). In the measure in which the holders go softening on those matters, and that the future behaviour of the central banks seems very clear, the market owes resume a certain standardisation. That movement with an upward trend of the stock exchanges would owe is accompanied by an assessment of the dollar and, probably, also of the raw materials. This, in turn, he should revive certain inflationists expectations, which it should take to falls in the fixed income, that also would lose its shelter condition in a more benign environment. For that environment is for that which are positioned, with a net exhibition to equities of 35% currently.